Fairbanks News Miner/AP. Allowing municipalities in on natural gas pipeline negotiations would be as “impracticable as having 60 legislators sitting at the table,” Gov. Sean Parnell (NGP Photo) wrote to four local governments concerned about property tax deals the state could cut with producers. Municipalities, including the Fairbanks North Star Borough, have raised concerns about agreements the state penned with North Slope producers and TransCanada that could allow the gasline to make payments based on throughput in lieu of traditional property taxes.
BP today announced its intention to establish a separate business to manage its onshore oil and gas assets in the US Lower 48.
Comment: Yesterday we noted that two legislators are planning for a new oil revenue stream should voters adopt an August Primary Ballot proposition to repeal oil tax reform.
That revenue stream will be based on a new policy emphasis on state investment and equity into oil and gas exploration and development projects. These are the same minority legislators who are leading an effort to repeal the SB21 oil tax reform bill passed by a majority of the House and Senate, and signed by the Governor, less than a year ago.
We can now see a strategy rising from the mist: repeal of tax reform will have to be replaced by something that produces revenue. Since repeal of reform will deflect investment, an unhappy but obvious policy replacement would be to socialize/nationalize natural resource industries...starting with the small step of massive equity investment of public funds and employment of state employees to oversee the profitability of the investments.
What could possibly go wrong?
Today, we hear in a Fairbanks News Miner editorial, that certain Mayors who reap large and mostly passive benefits from the oil and gas statewide property tax, are mounting an effort to investigate impact on their revenues from an agreement between the state and gas pipeline parties regarding the fiscal regime enabling a gas pipeline project to proceed.
Certain gubernatorial candidates oppose both oil tax reform and the fiscal terms surrounding a gas pipeline project.
The current governor supports both tax reform and the proposed gas pipeline fiscal regime.
While there seems to be alignment among major gas pipeline and oil tax stakeholders, lack of political alignment from other, vocal influence leaders could well cause oil tax reform to disappear after August, soon to be replaced by new statewide leadership and a new world of natural resource control by bureaucrats and government ownership of the 'means of production'.
Should this be the outcome, we can envision great impact, as well, on Alaska's entire investment climate, not merely limited to natural resource investors. -dh
Comment: Fox News interviewed former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (NGP Photo) today.
During the interview, we learned that Candidate Obama opposed Candidate Romney's conviction that Russia posed a global threat to peace.
The program also produced a video of Candidate Sarah Palin, earlier warning that just as Russia invaded Georgia it could as easily invade Ukraine.
Throughout the interview, Palin emphasized the importance of approving the Keystone XL pipeline and developing domestic energy resources with Administration support--rather than Administration opposition.
Our faithful readers know that we have been hard on Palin for her Alaska oil tax and gas pipeline policies nearly a decade ago...but in this interview we found ourselves appreciating her message, which we paraphrase: "Develop America's resources aggressively and responsibly now, Mr. Obama, or watch our standing in the world and support for our allies diminish along with our national security and economic recovery."
We also note from the current issue of Petroleum News, that "Commissioner John Norman (NGP Photo) retired from the Alaska Oil and Gas Conservation Commission at the end of January. Norman, an attorney, had been the public member of the commission for 10 years. He was named to the commission by former Gov. Frank Murkowski in 2004, replacing Sarah Palin as the public mem...." (We are reminded once again of what a small world it is as we congratulate Governor Palin on her stand for domestic energy production and her replacement, Commissioner Norman, for a lifetime of service to the state and nation. -dh
Wall Street Journal by James Freeman
WARREN BUFFETT, CLIMATE-CHANGE DENIER
The billionaire chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (Photo, Buffett with NGP Publisher) is on some kind of roll. Yesterday we told you about his warning on public pension funds in his annual letter to shareholders. Now, he's puncturing deeply-held liberal myths about global warming. Mr. Buffett tells CNBC that extreme weather events are not becoming more common, and that climate change is not altering his company's calculations when insuring against catastrophic weather events. "The public has the impression that because there's been so much talk about climate that events of the last 10 years from an insured standpoint and climate have been unusual," he said. "The answer is they haven't." (We commented on the subject of climate change two days ago, invoking Aristotle's Golden Mean ideal; and we challenged both sides of the debate). -dh
Comment and link: We earlier commented on LNG competition.
Here, Peter Tertzakian of the Globe and Mail gives further insight on the softening LNG market for British Columbia exports. Are not some of Canada's LNG export concerns ones that we Alaskans share. In both Alaska's land Canada's cases, LNG market demand and competition are exacerbated by local political interests striving to obtain for themselves and their constituencies all possible benefits -- even if the end result is achieving 100% success in gaining benefits for projects that became embroiled and then doomed in a sea of local and national political struggles.
To quote our reference at the Globe and Mail: Japanese benchmark prices for LNG in Asia have been exceptionally high since the Fukushima nuclear disaster, almost exactly three years ago. Concurrently, domestic Canadian natural gas prices have been anomalously low. The resulting “differential” between the two was $15.70 (U.S.) for one million British thermal units (MMBtu) at its widest in July, 2012. It’s been that massive price gap, or arbitrage, that triggered the buy-low-sell-high opportunity to build LNG export facilities in North America, including 14 projects off the west coast of B.C.
Peninsula Clarion (Morris News Service/Alaska Journal of Commerce), by Tim Bradner (NGP Photo, at Nikiski LNG Terminal).
Minority Democrats in the Legislature unveiled their vision of an oil tax system should voters this summer roll back the tax structure lawmakers approved last year.
. . .
“There are (state) entities around the world that own a share of their oil industry (through state oil companies) and I have confidence that we have the ability to do this,” said Sen. Bill Wielechowski (NGP Photo).
. . .
“The governor’s giveaway is a pathway to poverty,” said Rep. Les Gara, (NGP Photo), said in the press conference “He throws two billion dollars out of an airplane and hopes it lands in the piggy bank....”
|Today, we learned that the Board of Directors of Bristol Bay Native Corporation has urged shareholders to support Alaska's tax reform bill, SB21 and vote against repeal in the August primary election. (Website). -dh|
Globe & Mail. Spanish oil major Repsol SA says its board of directors has approved a definitive $5-billion (U.S.) settlement from Argentina. Repsol is a new Alaska North Slope company which, after the Argentina adventure, are seeking a more productive experience in the far North. As we wrote in October, the jury is still out on Repsol's Alaska venture, though we remain hopeful. -dh
|AP. A bill aimed at advancing a liquefied natural gas project in Alaska has moved from the Senate Resources Committee.|
Part II: Has Alaska Become A Place Where A Deal Is A Deal?
With a third of Alaska's economy based on oil, with oil production declining, and with the entire state economy over a third dependent on oil, repealing Alaska's new tax reform law poses a clear and present danger.
Earlier this month in Part I, we asked if "Alaska has become a place where a deal is a deal."
The most recent evidence that in Alaska, a "deal may not be a deal", can be found by reviewing this month's Alaska Supreme Court decision affirming a lower court's decision to uphold a new assessment methodology, thus increasng the property taxes applying to oil company property in Alaska.
We sympathize with the court about the difficulty of adjudicating property value among distinguished litigants--even when a taxing method is not at issue.
But when a court supports a change in the rules of the game, it makes investors less likely to be attracted to that jurisdiction.
The Journal of Legal Issues and Cases in Business, penned by one of Alaska's, most distinguished, retired Senior Economists, Roger Marks (NPG Photo) identifies this problem: "In 2005 the state changed the assessment method from an income approach to a cost approach.
"Under the income approach assessed value was based on production depreciation. Under the cost approach value was based on replacement cost new less straight-line depreciation.
"When the assessment means was changed there was no adjustment for past depreciation.
This inconsistency in depreciation treatment caused assets to be depreciated more than once over time, with the result being a double taxation of the property."
In fairness, we note that Marks was one of the oil companies' "expert witnesses".
Used to be that a handshake was sufficient between honorable Alaskans to confirm a deal.
Old timers tell us that in the 40s and 50s and even to the mid 60s, Alaska used to be a place where you didn't need to lock your doors at night--even in the cities.
If you trusted your house to be secure in the evening, you surely trusted the word of friends and other fellow Alaskans.
Then came the great Prudhoe Bay discovery in the winter of 1967-68. Our leaders then could have raised oil and gas taxes to a level they thought to be consistent with the Constitution's admonition to obtain the maximum benefit of resource development for citizens. The rule in place, they could then have reasonably conducted the 1969 lease sale. The oil company bidders could then have bid with the more reasonable certainty of knowing the rules would not likely change after investments had been made.
Instead, Alaska became greedy, we believe, having lived through those times. Folks started locking their doors. In the twelve years following the 1969 lease sale, the governor and legislature increased industry taxes dramatically, about a dozen times in that many years--after the lease sale had locked in company investment decisions. Then followed a period of dramatically increased cost estimates caused by increasing environmental, legal, political, labor and tax burdens.
Yes, Prudhoe Bay was big and could sustain a lot of abusive tax attacks. But when they bid, the companies did so contemplating the risks known at the time. Then they found in short order that the rules of the game would be changing before, during and after vast new investments in Alaska occurred.
This commentary does not quibble with whether or not any of the decisions made were 'right' or 'wrong'.
We do conclude without much fear of contradiction that by changing the rules of the game so often and so dramatically after it was too late for investors to reevaluate, Alaska was beginning to develop for itself a reputation with early signs of tarnish.
Then after a decade of changing rules, Governor Hammond and both the Republican and Democratic leadership of the House and Senate convened a press conference -- 33 years ago next month -- to signal that a landmark bill had passed which created for Alaska -- in general -- a "Fair Share" of resource development revenue.
A rather peaceful investment climate ensued for a generation -- until the early 2000s when Governor Frank Murkowski (NGP Photo) attempted with good intent to bargain to give gas pipeline investors fiscal certainty in return for increased oil company production taxes. The companies, in good faith agreed. The legislature honored part of the bargain by increasing their taxes but neglected to provide the necessary fiscal certainty to permit the creation of a viable gas pipeline project. The companies were rope-a-doped after two decades of improved relationships that even survived the desperate oil price drops of the late 1980s.
Governor Sarah Palin (NGP Photo) replaced Murkowski in the next election of 2006 and, with legislative acquiescence, increased industry taxes which were applied with no real or feigned pretense of good intent. To add insult to injury Murkowski's tax increase was increased further and applied retroactively.
Last spring, the legislature and governor acted to more reasonably reform the state's production tax and immediately thereafter, legislative foes, environmental groups and others initiated a voters referendum designed to repeal the new law, (SB21). Now, as we said in Part I, investors await the outcome of Alaska's August 19 primary election. If SB21 is affirmed by a majority voting "NO" to repeal, Alaska will have improved its investment climate reputation.
Our astute readers will also note that a mid year primary election is often lightly attended, usually by those who are determined to support or oppose a particular candidate or ballot proposition. In this case, in addition to primary candidates, voters will be adopting or rejecting very controversial propositions to advance widespread marijuana use in Alaska, to increase and provide a cost of living increase for the minimum wage in the state and an environmental initiative to block mining development.
Mathematicians and odds makers among us agree on one thing: a determined voter base of those supporting drugs, labor increases and anti-development forces could, in general, be more likely to vote to repeal an improved corporate investment climate than to keep the new oil tax reform law in place.
Accordingly, those opposed to all the initiatives will need to mount a big and unusually creative campaign if they are to stimulate a turnout of pro-free enterprise supporters and have a hope of balancing the scales.
So picture this. In Alaska's late summer a great tug of war will occur with big stakes. In the middle, we have a great chasm. On the left is an army of environmentalist activists, labor union activists, and marijuana proponents and their supporters pulling, sweating, grunting, polling, going door-to-door, advertising, and writing letters to the editor for all they're worth. On the right side of the chasm, pulling the rope in the other direction are those opposed to drug use, anti-business tactics and policies that repel investment and natural resource development.
One set of policies will be pulled into the chasm.
If the left side is pulled down, Alaska's reputation as a good place to live, work and play might be on the way to repair--except that there would be always the threat of another, similar referendum, year after year.
If the business side goes down, we'll know that in Alaska, a deal is for sure not a deal--until further notice!
In that case, expect dramatic reductions in investment, significant out-migration, decreasing oil production, less employment, fewer government services, lower real estate prices and overall economic malaise. Alaska would, in this fix, be more likely to become a ward of the federal government than living up to its former reputation as the Last Frontier, the Pioneering State.
And, finally, just as natural-resource-rich Alaska retreats from resource development, Russia, Canada and other Arctic nations are aggressively seeking to develop their far North resources and exploit the Northwest Passage while protecting and expanding their Arctic sovereignty.
Reforming Alaska's tax policies that have put it behind California in production, therefore, is not a local issue, but an international event that affects the security and economies and people of both the United States and Canada.
Opinion Editorial: A Lifelong Fairbanksan Opposes Efforts To Repeal SB21
Leslie Wien Hajdukovich
Alaska’s oil and gas industry has been the biggest driver in our state’s economy for 50 years. Responsible development of our oil and gas reserves has fueled our schools, roads, airports, government, our grocery stores, coffee huts and car dealerships. As a fifth generation Alaskan, I am thankful for an industry that allows me, and my family the opportunity to live in Alaska.
As an active member of the Fairbanks community, I have served on the Fairbanks school board for six years, three as president, and in other volunteer capacities that have benefitted our youth. It is important to me that every child in Alaska receive a quality education – an education that prepares them for the work force, and for future employment in our great state. Upon being elected to the school board, I quickly learned that our school district’s funding is heavily dependent upon the success of the oil and gas industry in Alaska.
Last October, I was asked to be a statewide co-chair for the effort to defeat the oil tax referendum that is on the ballot this August. I felt it too important an issue to say no. Over the last three months, I have become informed and carefully studied the issues around new oil tax reform. I have a clear understanding of why oil tax reform is good for Alaska.
The state budget shortfall is not due to oil tax reform, but rather to declining oil production in our state and falling oil prices. Oil prices are not something we can control in Alaska, however we can influence decisions that affect production. That is exactly what new oil tax reform does. Because of provisions in the new law, the outlook for Alaska is much brighter in the long term. With oil tax reform, state revenues from oil will be more balanced, predictable and beneficial to our state.
Since new oil tax reform passed, oil companies in Alaska have announced billions of dollars in new investment. In just one example, ConocoPhillips has announced a 54 percent increase in investment in Alaska over 2013, and most of that increase is due to the change in the tax structure. This investment is tied to new exploration and increasing oil production. The Trans-Alaska Pipeline has tremendous value to Alaskans, but only if it has oil flowing through it. Right now, it is flowing at one quarter of its peak capacity and still declining. Oil tax reform is about taking the steps necessary to add more oil to the pipeline.
As a Fairbanksan, I have high hopes that a gas line is in our future. We need the financial relief of heating our homes, businesses and institutions with cheaper and cleaner burning gas. Investment in North Slope oil actually increases our chances of gas exploration and a gas line. They go hand in hand.
One thing I’ve learned over the last few months is that new oil tax reform offers great opportunity for Alaskans, not only by boosting our economy, but offering a long-term, sustainable funding source for our state coffers. It promises our children and grandchildren a brighter future. This is the right tax reform at the right time. I encourage Alaskan voters to get informed, and to please Vote No on 1 this August.
BBNC Opposes Ballot Measure 1
- Published on Tuesday, February 25 2014 10:19
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
February 25, 2014
Bristol Bay Native Corporation Opposes Ballot Measure 1
On Friday, Feb. 21, the Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC) Board of Directors passed a resolution opposing Ballot Measure 1, which is a veto referendum seeking to repeal the Alaska Legislature’s oil tax bill passed during the 2013 session. Ballot Measure 1 seeks to repeal Senate Bill 21, also known as the Oil and Gas Production Tax, which modified the state’s oil tax regime in a manner designed to increase oil and gas exploration, development and production, and stimulate greater investment in Alaska. Ballot Measure 1 will appear on the August 19, 2014 primary ballot in Alaska.
BBNC has made significant investments in the Alaska oilfield services industry through its subsidiary companies Kakivik Asset Management, CCI Industrial Services and Peak Oilfield Service Company. These subsidiaries provide substantial benefits to BBNC shareholders in the form of employment, wages, and profits that contribute to dividends. The operations also provide over 1,000 high paying jobs primarily to Alaskans. The continued growth and success of these subsidiaries, as well as Alaska in general, is dependent upon a fiscal environment that encourages investment and economic growth in the Alaska oilfield services industry.
In the past year, under the current Oil and Gas Production Tax, BBNC has seen a dramatic increase in oilfield activity. BBNC is concerned that if Ballot Measure 1 were to pass, and Alaska returns to the prior tax structure, it will result in decreased oil and gas investment activity in the state; this would have an immediate and negative impact on BBNC’s subsidiaries and its shareholders, as well as the state of Alaska as a whole.
BBNC’s prudent support of Alaska’s oil and gas industry aligns with its balanced approach to the development of state resources. “Alaska’s oil and gas sector provides our shareholders with significant employment opportunities and makes major contributions to our ability to pay dividends,” said BBNC President and CEO Jason Metrokin. “BBNC strongly supports the industry that makes it possible to provide such benefits to its shareholders and opposes Ballot Measure 1.”
Bristol Bay Native Corporation (BBNC) is a responsible Alaska Native investment corporation dedicated to the mission of “Enriching Our Native Way of Life.” Established through the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971, BBNC works to ensure the continuation of the life and culture of its over 9,400 shareholders – the Eskimo, Indian and Aleut Natives of Southwest Alaska’s Bristol Bay region.
Lindsay Williams alerts us that Alaska Senate Resources Committee Chairman Cathy Giessel (NGP Photo) will hold a hearing Monday morning from 8-8:50 a.m. on SB 138 Gas Pipeline, AGDC, Oil & Gas Production Tax.
Globe & Mail. Prime Minister Stephen Harper was again rebuffed in his bid to press U.S. President Barack Obama to approve the controversial Keystone XL pipeline when he raised the issue during a North American leaders’ summit in Toluca, Mexico. *** Globe & Mail.
Tracts of land that had been set aside for reindeer grazing in Canada’s North have instead been offered up by the Conservative government for oil and gas exploration, newly released documents show. (Comment: As we in Alaska have learned, oil development and caribou herd growth are compatible. -dh)
KETCHIKAN, Alaska, Senate Energy Committee – One day after sharing her concerns that the recently-announced 'Special Representative for the Arctic' position represents mere "window dressing" on Arctic engagement, Senator Lisa Murkowski (NGP Photo) called on Secretary John Kerry to meet with her and provide more information about the nature of the position -- and why he is declining to name an official to a full Ambassador position.
With Senator Murkowski having recently delivered the Keynote Address at the Global Arctic Symposium and planning to participate in this weekend's Standing Committee of Parliamentarians of the Arctic Region (SCPAR) and meet with the Chair of the Arctic Council, she wants to be assured that the Obama Administration is truly raising the profile of its Arctic agenda.
In a letter to Secretary Kerry (attached), Murkowski writes:
“I am also pleased that the position will be filled by a high level individual of substantial stature and expertise. I am gravely concerned, however, that the Special Representative will not be on par with our Arctic partners at international bilateral and multilateral events, nor will it have the authority within the U.S. Government to direct resources to the Far North and I welcome the opportunity to engage with you on these issues.”
When the State Department announced its plans to name a 'Special Representative to the Arctic,' Murkowski first vocalized these concerns -- given that 7 of the 8 Arctic nations (and non-Arctic nations like Thailand) have appointed full Ambassadors -- since the United States should not relegate its Arctic involvement given the global attention and investment in the region.
Calgary Herald by James Wood. As Canada presses the Obama administration to approve the Keystone XL project, the Alberta government has spent more than $2 million on U.S. lobbyists since 2008 on key issues such as the oil pipeline — although the flow of provincial money has dried up this year.
Bakken News: A year of records - 02/23/2014 It's hard to talk about North Dakota oil production these days without talking about setting records, and December production was no exception. But the record is not of the type people are used to seeing as a decline in output in December marks the largest single drop in average daily production in....
Houston Chronicle/AP by Becky Bohrer.
Federal agencies are ready to work on an Alaska liquefied natural gas project but don't want another false start, state lawmakers were told Wednesday.
In testimony submitted to the Senate Finance Committee, Larry Persily (NGP Photo), the federal coordinator of Alaska gas pipeline projects, said agencies would like to know a project has a real shot at making it this time.
Persily said this time could well be different than past efforts, like the proposed gas line ...
Deputy Revenue Commissioner Mike Pawlowski said AGDCis not just about the in-state line and ...
Sen. Hollis French (NGP Photo), D-Anchorage, asked whether the bill, which references the oil tax law, will have any impact on ....
The Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) recently released its FY 2015 update estimating how much Alaska’s state government can afford to spend from the unrestricted General Fund (UGF) in the coming fiscal year. In this year’s report, author Scott Goldsmith (NGP Photo) estimates that the state can afford to spend about $5 billion from the UGF in FY15.
Guest Commentary On Oil Tax Reform
Alaska will sit at a critical crossroads when it is time to vote in this year’s primary election on the question of whether to repeal recently passed oil tax reform aimed at increasing North Slope oil production and investment for new oil.
I grew up in Ketchikan and have spent almost my whole life working in resource related industries. I started working in fishery supply and aviation to put myself through college and much of my adult life has been spent in the state’s maritime and tourism industries in Southeast Alaska.
Oil tax reform is delivering even more good news for Alaska. BP will increase its capital investment in Alaska by 25 percent to $1.2 billion this year, Janet Weiss (NGP Photo), president of BP Alaska, told the Anchorage Chamber Feb. 10.
Next door at Kuparuk, ConocoPhillips Alaska has submitted permit applications for a viscous oil development targeting the West Sak reservoir, the company said in a statement released Feb. 18.
All resource industries require stable fiscal climates, robust infrastructure and quality transportation systems to thrive. When resource industries in Southeast Alaska are booming local economies thrive -- providing jobs and helping keep local taxes low.
There is a radio ad playing now across the state that says, in effect, that we all are in the oil industry. In Alaska, a truer statement was never made, no matter how far removed Alaskans are from the oil fields on the North Slope. We are all impacted by the industry’s success.
When the Legislature passed oil tax reform to rectify the problems with the old oil tax system, it took a strong step forward in securing the state’s long-term economic future.
The old tax system contained a provision that was punitive as it ratcheted tax rates so high it made Alaska unattractive to the oil industry to increase investment here. As a result, investment went elsewhere, while North Slope oil production continued an average 6-8 percent annual decline.
Why does it matter to Southeast Alaska that oil in our pipeline is only about one-fourth of its capacity?
Because even though it may not feel like it in Southeast, Alaska’s economy is fueled by oil production. Oil revenues to the state are based on production, and the State of Alaska gets 90 cents of every unrestricted general fund dollar it spends - from oil revenues. The industry is responsible, directly or indirectly, for about one-third of all jobs and about one-half of Alaska’s entire economy according to a university study. It is the state’s biggest private economic partner.
Alaskans need a healthy, vibrant oil industry for long-term, sustainable state budgets, economic growth and to maintain the quality of life Alaskans enjoy.
Oil production decline is a serious matter for every Alaskan, and to generate more production, the state needs to attract more investment, but that was not occurring under the old tax regime. Investment increased elsewhere. In fact, among the other oil producing states in the U.S., as of 2012, all had shown increases or were flat with the previous year. Alaska was the only state to decline. Punitive taxes drove away new investment. None of that is good for Alaskans or our economy.
The good news is the new oil tax system is working. We are already seeing increased investment on the North Slope as companies position themselves to work under an improved business climate created by tax reform.
Southeast Alaska residents, in my view, would be wrong to vote to repeal the new tax reform and return the state to the old tax, which has a proven track record of failure - failure to attract increased investments, and failure to increase oil production that come along with more investment. Already, the Southeast Alaska Conference, the largest economic development membership group in Southeast, has endorsed a “No” vote on the repeal measure because of the harm passage would inflict on our state economy.
We are at the crossroads. We must take the right path for the long-term. Join me in learning more at www.foraksfuture.com.
(We received the commentary above from a group advocating defeat of the referendum proposal to repeal last year's passage of SB 21, oil tax reform. We took a similar editorial position soon after repeal advocates announced their intent to repeal the new law. We have long said that tax reform is a huge incentive for gas pipeline success and that repeal of tax reform will lead to a dark new era of energy investment in Alaska. The author of this piece, Bob Berto, is a statewide co-chair of a group advocating defeat of the referendum. He is a small businessman involved in tourism and maritime services. Berto is a lifelong Southeast Alaskan and lives in Ketchikan. -dh)