| See this week's Petroleum News, just released. |
Compared to Russian and Canadian Arctic energy initiatives, U.S. efforts are pathetic. Russia's Arctic power could well influence competitive factors discussed below in ways detrimental to the world's democracies. Read more…. -dh
| Decision makers: look below, and ignore the competitive, new, worldwide oil & gas market at your own peril and at the risk of removing opportunities from your succeeding generation of young, hopeful, ambitious children that you and your friends enjoyed. -dh |
Today, an energy analyst friend privately opines on natural gas pricing, which should be of some interest to potential investors in a $40 – 60 billion Alaska natural gas pipeline–as well as Canadian project participants. Read below.
We hasten to add that natural gas supply and pricing is still not as "world-wide fungible" as oil.
Until now, the North American gas market has focused almost completely on North American supply/demand factors…unlike oil which has traded within a fairly narrow worldwide price range–offsetting U.S. prices somewhat because of the multi-decade crude oil export ban.
.JPG) U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski yesterday stressed the economic and national security benefits of ending the 1975 federal ban on exporting domestically produced crude oil at a hearing before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. See the video, also featuring ConocoPhillips Chairman & CEO Ryan Lance (NGP Photo). |
However, because of extensive, competing world-wide LNG export projects, the continuing expansion of world-wide shale technology, and the increasing attraction of natural gas for power generation it is probably only a matter of time before we approach a worldwide pricing range and supply balance for natural gas.
Investors must absorb and interpret these rapidly changing and multi-dimensional factors as they consider different lease sale bidding strategies and varied projects in different jurisdictions with wide-ranging rules and risks. This reality makes it essential that Alaska's and Canada's energy decision makers (i.e. our readership base) retreat from unpredictable, greedy and provincial tax, royalty, regulatory policies and lavish spending practices–which affect tax policies.
Everywhere, those blessed with oil and gas supply should keep one eye on the competition and one eye on reducing public spending to sustainable, essential levels. See yesterday's examples, "Lessons For Alaska From Canada". -dh
Our energy analyst friend writes, "Natural gas has seemingly had a lot going for it in the past year:
- The US came out of last winter at record low inventories
- Pipelines keep getting added and redirected to distribute natural gas to hungry markets (although slowly)
- The weather has been brutal east of the Rockies, all the way into the South
- More gas keeps displacing coal, moving to Mexico, and benefiting slightly from a modestly improving economy
- The number of gas (and especially oil) rigs has dropped off big-time
"Despite it all, natural gas is in the doldrums price-wise. The HH is $2.83, and some recent negative basis-priced gas has sold for 99 cents. The worst of it all, however, is that it is hard to see the end of the “tunnel”. There is no futures monthly price that hits $4 until 2022."
For our Alaskan and Canadian decision maker friends: here is the face of worldwide oil & gas competition from Energypedia:
GoM: Statoil adds acreage in the Gulf of Mexico Central Lease Sale
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Brazil: Petrobras breaks record for well drilling depth in Sergipe-Alagoas Basin http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Ophir Energy announces full year results – updates operations http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Tower Resources announces corporate update
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Trinidad: Range Resources announces Trinidad operational update
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Iran upstream could be open for business this year
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
razadvisers.com/toolkit.html&
Colombia: Anadarko awards CGG the largest proprietary 3D marine seismic survey in Colombia
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Bulgaria’s Mizia Oil and Gas awarded four exploration blocks in Bulgaria <http://www.energy-pedia.com/
UK: Britain hands lifeline to North Sea oil industry with tax cuts http://www.energy-pedia.com/
UK: Grangemouth operator INEOS begins fracking consultation http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Australia: Gardline CGG to acquire Gippsland 2D infill seismic survey for Geoscience Australia http://www.energy-pedia.com/
US shale oil firms brace for more pain as crude resumes slide http://www.energy-pedia.com/
UK Budget lays strong foundations for regeneration of the UK North Sea http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Oil & Gas UK welcomes the Chancellor’s decisive move to restructure the North Sea tax regime ….
GoM: Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 235 yields $539 million in high bids on nearly one million acres in Central Planning Area http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Canada: Conoco to cut 7 percent of Canadian workforce
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Israel's Tamar group to sell gas to Egypt via pipeline
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
billion of natural gas from Israel's ….
Iraq: Gulf Keystone ramping up Shaikan production
http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Morocco: Mubadala Petroleum signs geological study agreement with Morocco http://www.energy-pedia.com/
Indonesia: Statoil awarded new licence offshore Indonesia http://www.energy-pedia.com/
While the U.S. administration characteristically fumbles with global warming and Arctic regulatory issues, Russia — and to a similar but smaller degree, Canada — moves out smartly to take the initiative while establishing and enforcing jurisdiction — and sovereignty. More below…. -dh
Barents Observer by Atle Staalesen. As Russia is unfolding a major combat alert drill in its Northern Fleet, the country’s government approves the setup of a new federal Arctic Commission. Headed by hardline Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, the Commission will coordinate all government authorities involved in regional developments.
Included in the Commission mandate are issues of social, economic, political, as well as military, importance, newspaper Kommersant reports.
…
Rogozin will have five Commission deputies to his disposal: Minister of Natural Resources Sergey Donskoy, Minister of Energy Aleksandr Novak, Minister of Economic Development Aleksey Ulyukaev, Minister of Transport Maksim Sokolov and Deputy Secretary of the national Security Council Vladimir Nazarov. A total of 60 people will be included in the new structure, among them representatives of the oil and gas industry, the ministry of Defence, the FSB, the Presidential Administration and regional governors.
Leave A Comment