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      This is your public service 1-stop-shop for Alaskan and Canadian Arctic energy commentary, news, history, projects and people. We update it daily for you. It is the most timely and complete northern energy archive anywhere — used by media, academia, government and industry officials throughout the world. Northern Gas Pipelines may be the oldest Alaska blog; we invite readers to name others existing before 2001.  -dh


11-17-15 Statoil Leaves Alaska - Murkowski Schedules ANILCA Hearing

17 November 2015 6:19am

TransCanada thrives amid intense challenges.  Read more below.  -dh

U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski Responds TODAY TO  Statoil's decision to end its Alaska Arctic offshore exploration program.


Lisa Murkowski, Alaska Senator, Energy & Natural Resources, ANILCA, overreach, Photo by Dave HarbourSchedule now for this hearing of Senator Lisa Murkowski's (NGP Photo) Energy and Natural Resources Committee:   Thursday, Dec. 3, 10 a.m.,  Full committee hearing on implementation of the Alaska National Interest Lands Conservation Act of 1980, including perspectives on the Act’s impacts in Alaska and suggestions for improvements to the Act. 

Seeking Alpha.  TransCanada says it is sticking with a plan to increase investor payouts by 8%-10% annually through 2020 even after the rejection of the Keystone XL pipeline.

Calgary Herald, by Adam Williams & Rebecca Penty.  Days after the U.S. spurned TransCanada Corp.’s proposal to expand its Keystone pipeline network across North America, Mexico opened its arms.   TransCanada won the rights last week for its sixth pipeline in Mexico....

CBC by Paul Haavardsrud.  The fast-paced world of pipeline politics, as it turns out, doesn't take time to dwell on sentiment.

Before U.S. President Barack Obama was even finished putting the spike in one controversial Canadian pipeline project, attention was already turning to the chances that another would get built. 

Due in no small part to Keystone XL's demise, the prospects for Energy East (CP Photo), a 4,600-kilometre length of pipe running between Alberta and New Brunswick, have never looked better.  More....

Calgary Herald by Dan Healing.

More relief for Western Canada gas producers enduring pipeline bottlenecks is on the way with Calgary-based TransCanada Corp. announcing Monday a $570-million proposal to add capacity to cover 2.7 billion cubic feet per day of firm contracts on its Nova Gas Transmission Ltd. system by 2018.

Dozens of Calgary-based oil and gas companies that operate in western Alberta and northeastern British Columbia have reported interrupted production over the summer as natural gas gushing from horizontal, multi-fractured wells overwhelm systems operated by TransCanada and Spectra Energy. The Alliance Pipeline was also shut down for several days after sour gas accidentally entered the system.

Calgary Herald by Darcy Henton.  

A new carbon tax that’s expected to be proposed by the Alberta NDP to combat global warning is a “tax on everything” that will hurt laid-off Albertans, says Wildrose Leader Brian Jean.

The leader of the official Opposition demanded to know why Premier Rachel Notley suggested in a speech in Toronto last week that she plans to introduce a carbon tax while Alberta is in the throes of recession triggered by the massive collapse of oil prices.  More....

Natural Gas Intel by Joe Fisher.  

ConocoPhillips Alaska Natural Gas Corp. (CPANGC) has filed with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to extend exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from its terminal at Kenai, AK.

CPANGC is seeking free trade agreement (FTA) and non-FTA export authorization for up to the equivalent of 40 Bcf of LNG for a period of two years beginning Feb. 19, 2016. Its current FTA and non-FTA export authorizations are due to expire soon. The Kenai LNG facility has exported LNG for almost 50 years under multiple export authorizations over that period.  More....

Peninsula Clarion by Elizabeth Earl.  

Managers are concerned that pressure on the Kenai River could increase if the Alaska LNG project goes through.

The project is still tentative and will not receive a final ruling until 2018 at the earliest, but if it does go through, the borough could see an influx of as many as 5,000 workers for the five years it takes to construct the 900-acre plant in Nikiski. Unless the camp is closed, many of them will likely recreate on the Kenai River.

Meanwhile, we see an American President reasserting an opinion this week in Turkey that Global Warming is a "critical issue", while calling the Paris murders, a "setback" in his strategy to fight terrorism.  -dh

Climate Change Comment by Thorpe Watson, NGP Reader.


Do you believe that mankind's emissions of carbon dioxide ("CO2", aka “carbon”) will cause runaway warming?

Do you believe that we can stabilize the planet's ever-changing climate by restricting our generation of COor by paying carbon taxes or by adopting a meat-free diet?

Do you believe that CO2 is “carbon” pollution?

The thousands of delegates, who will attend the Paris climate summit November 30, embrace such beliefs while ignoring facts that clearly demonstrate the delusional, if not pathological, nature of such beliefs. The pertinent facts are:


  • CO2 is not carbon or black soot.

  • CO2 is a colourless, trace gas in our CO2-impoverished atmosphere.

  • CO2 is as important as water and oxygen in sustaining life on the planet.

  • Henry's Law limits mankind's contribution to the total CO2 content of the atmosphere because the oceans are a huge CO2 sink.

  • Consequently, the consumption of all known coal, oil, and gas deposits will not materially replenish our CO2-impoverished atmosphere (less than 15%).

  • Global warming ceased more than 18 years ago in spite of increasing CO2 levels.

  • Most of the CO2 increases are caused by the natural out-gassing of the oceans.

  • The USA's emissions reduction pledge will seriously harm the USA economy and, according to the UN's flawed climate models, the reduction will reduce the world temperature by a pathetic, non-detectable 0.01oC by 2100 under the UN's most extreme and mistaken assumptions.

A more credible alarmist message is provided by scientists who claim that we will be subject to another mini ice age by 2030 (See article below). Solar scientists have been forecasting, for some time, a return of the low temperatures of the Maunder Minimum (1645 to 1715).

Rather than developing strategies to enable Canadians to adapt to inevitable lower temperatures, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will join the Paris delegates in their quixotic attempt to stabilize the planet's climate. Like Trudeau's chief advisor, Gerald Butts, the Paris delegates are eager to implement a worldwide, carbon-free economy; that is, an economy that does not use hydrocarbon fuels (i.e. coal, oil, and gas).

Gerald Butts was a senior adviser to Premier Dalton McGuinty when Ontario started down the carbon-free road to bankruptcy under its so-called 'Green Energy Act'. It is actually an anti-green act because it wrongly vilifies CO2. CO2 is a vital component of the carbon cycle, which is essential in the greening of our planet. At this time, Canada's industrial heartland (i.e. Ontario) is being dismantled under the Act.

How much of our sovereignty will Trudeau surrender to UN bureaucrats in the delusional belief that we can stabilize an ever-changing climate? I am sure the UN will be very willing to accept the payment of “indulgences” should we fail to meet our emission-reduction targets.

Furthermore, I am deeply concerned that the "International Tribunal of Climate Justice", to be resurrected at the Paris summit, could be given sufficiently broad powers to deny our freedom of expression. Specifically, the Tribunal would then have the power to deny our right to challenge the UN's false global-warming/climate-change narrative.

If you think I'm being paranoid, please note what has been said by such prominent figures as Robert Kennedy Jr. and David Suzuki; that is, they view climate realists as felons. Even the lawyers for Michael Mann would like to apply RICO laws against Mark Steyn who challenged Mann’s fraudulent “hockey stick” graph; that is, his bogus global temperature graph.

In reality, the alarmist climate narrative is not about science. Christiana Figueres (Executive Secretary UNFCCC) recently admitted that the primary purpose of the narrative is to gain acceptance for a new economic world order. Needless to say, it would be reasonable to assume that we will then be governed by corrupt, unelected, UN bureaucrats anxious to steal redistribute our wealth.

Will Ottawa follow Ontario down the carbon-free road to bankruptcy? A weak, low-carbon economy will not only move us towards an impoverished, Medieval lifestyle but will also threaten the unity of Canada and make us more vulnerable to the radicals of the world.

In addition to the foregoing man-made disasters, there is the natural threat of global cooling within 15 years. Will our politicians wake up in time to develop a strategy enabling Canadians to adapt to lower temperatures and to cope with the consequential reduction of farm output?

Let us hope that truth and common sense will prevail.




GLOBAL COOLING: Decade long ice age predicted as sun 'hibernates'

SCIENTISTS claim we are in for a decade-long freeze as the sun slows down solar activity by up to 60 per cent.

By Jon Austin

PUBLISHED: 03:07, Thu, Nov 5, 2015


A team of European researchers have unveiled a scientific model showing that the Earth is likely to experience a “mini ice age” from 2030 to 2040 as a result of decreased solar activity.

Their findings will infuriate environmental campaigners who argue by 2030 we could be facing increased sea levels and flooding due to glacial melt at the poles.


11-16-15 Canada Waits For Political Winds To Shift In Favor of Keystone XL - and - Ak-LNG Update On the Kenai Peninsula

16 November 2015 9:48am

TODAY'S  relevant energy links, courtesy: Consumer Energy Alliance:

Michael Whatley, Consumer Energy Alliance, Keystone, Arctic Energy Policy, Photo by Dave HarbourSteel on SteelNews Radio with John Loeffler 
President Obama rejected the Keystone Pipeline permit this week, handing green activists a victory and dealing the oil industry and Canada a loss. Michael Whatley (NGP Photo), Executive Vice President for Consumer Energy Alliance, examines how thousands of jobs and dollars will not find their way into our economy, and how Canada is waiting for the political winds to shift in America before revisiting the project. 

Peninsula Clarion by Ken Boettger.  

Larry Persily, Kenai Peninsula Borough, Ak-LNG, Federal Coordinator, Alaska Gas Pipeline, Photo by Dave HarbourNikiski residents gathered at the Nikiski Recreation Center on Thursday evening for another discussion on the local effects of the Alaska LNG project — hosted this time not by AK LNG staff, but by the Kenai Peninsula Borough.

Borough Mayor Mike Navarre and Larry Persily, (NGP Photo, Above) the mayor’s special assistant on oil and gas projects, gave their perspective on the project in an expansive question-and-answer session that ranged from the Kenai Spur Highway relocation project to Navarre’s role on the state Municipal Advisory Gas Project Review Board to the scope of future property purchases in Nikiski.

Navarre and Persily, whom the Borough hired in March 2015 to monitor the LNG project, plan to host talks in Nikiski every second Thursday of the month. The next is tentatively scheduled for Dec. 10.  More....

Washington ExaminerSenate expected to hold votes to roll back Obama's climate agenda
The Senate could hold votes as soon as this week on resolutions opposing President Obama's climate rules for power plants, ahead of an international meeting on global warming in Paris at the end of the month that he is set to attend.
Fox NewsDem senator says EPA power plant regs based on failed Canadian project
An outspoken Democratic senator is challenging the EPA's controversial power plant regulations by alleging they are based on a failing Canadian project, saying it makes “no sense” to force U.S. coal-fired plants to meet new standards using unproven technology.
Associated PressObama climate plan puts squeeze on coal state governor
Democratic governors are being squeezed by the mandate in President Barack Obama’s climate change plan to cut carbon-dioxide emissions - perhaps none more than Montana’s Steve Bullock, the one governor in a coal-producing state who faces re-election next year.
PoliticoLiberal donors double down on climate change
At a closed-door gathering next week in Washington, influential liberal donors and operatives plan to double down on their efforts to make climate change a central voting issue in 2016, despite disappointing returns on a similar campaign in 2014.
Houston ChronicleCould replacing nuclear with natural gas be bad?
Replacing nuclear power plants with combined cycle natural gas generators could increase carbon emissions, according to a new study by the Rhodium Group. The study raises questions about how the Clean Power Plan and competitive wholesale power markets will impact generation sources.
NPRWis. Tanker Derailments Revive Debate over Safest Way to Transport Crude
Some worry the Obama administration's decision to reject the Keystone XL pipeline will lead to a significant increase in the amount of crude being shipped by rail. It can also be shipped by truck.
Heartland InstituteStudy of Premature Births Fails to Show Fracking Connection
Serious methodological errors render unreliable the findings of a recent study titled “Unconventional Natural Gas Development and Birth Outcome in Pennsylvania, USA,” which suggested pregnant mothers living near hydraulic fracturing sites could be at a higher risk of giving birth to premature babies.
World Oil$38 million awarded to study effects of oil on Gulf of Mexico
The Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative (GoMRI) Research Board will award nearly $38 million to individuals and teams studying the effects of oil on the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem and public health. A total of 22 research proposals are being funded under this most recent GoMRI program.
Alaska Dispatch NewsForget steel, Alaska's gas line forever being built with wishes and dreams
Thirty-five years ago, laborers old and young gathered in the Fairbanks union hall hoping for jobs on the trans-Alaska natural gas line. The oil pipeline from the North Slope to Valdez had been completed, and oil was flowing. The men who built the oil line were no longer needed. They were unemployed.
Associated PressMore Repairs Ordered for Pipe after California Oil Spill
The operator of an oil pipeline that ruptured and spilled more than 100,000 gallons of crude on the California coast this year was ordered Friday to purge a neighboring line and make repairs so it doesn't fail. Federal regulators said the line owned by Plains All American Pipeline was constructed and operated in the same way as the line that brokeMay 19 outside Santa Barbara and the agency had found inspections of both pipes had underestimated corrosion inside.
Associated PressOnly 1 Californian got custom oil map: Brown
State officials have defended Gov. Jerry Brown’s request to have regulators map and study his family’s ranch for oil, gas and mining potential — arguing that the work by the state was nothing the agency wouldn’t do for other members of the public.
Las Vegas Review-JournalSix reasons why president was wrong to reject Keystone
This month, after stalling for a ridiculous seven years, President Barack Obama officially rejected the construction of the proposed Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada. The announcement was anticlimactic and hyper-political. The president repeatedly has downplayed Keystone's economic benefits and sided with environmentalist donors who claim the "dirty" and "unsustainable" pipeline would be too risky for the environment.
Houston ChronicleState says it's a power grab, but some Texas generators like Obama's plan
Thad Hill, in a split with many fellow power company executives, flatly opposes the lawsuits that Texas and 25 others states have filed to block the Obama administration's Clean Power Plan. The plan, which the Environmental Protection Agency unveiled in the summer, seeks to combat climate change by reducing carbon emissions at existing power plants.
Fort Worth Star-TelegramObama’s Keystone decision was a gift to Republicans
Sacrificing economic opportunity, jobs, national security, the environment, energy independence and more for the objective of “global leadership,” President Obama has handed voters another reason to choose a Republican successor for the job he holds. It couldn’t come too soon.
BloombergOil Producers Hungry for Deals Drool over West Texas `Tiramisu'
The worst oil market in decades would be hard to spot in West Texas, where two-lane county roads are still jammed with trucks and energy companies are on the prowl for deals. The Permian Basin, the biggest of the shale-oil regions that ignited the U.S. energy boom, is also the only one where production is increasing even as drillers idle more than half the rigs in the country during the longest price slump since the 1980s.
Financial TimesClues to future of US shale lie in Permian basin
The desert of west Texas was in the Palaeozoic era covered by an inland sea, teeming with life. That rich ecosystem is playing a crucial role in the world economy 250m years later. Over the course of millennia the abundant flora and fauna of that sea were transformed into the oil reserves of the Permian basin, which is both the most prolific and most resilient of the US regions that produce tight oil.
The Columbus Dispatch‘Hard-hit’ industry keeps increasing investment
Statehouse lawmakers have been resisting Gov. John Kasich’s call to institute a modest and fair tax increase on oil and gas drilling for Ohioans. One of the primary arguments of legislators and their industry backers is that, with the downturn in oil prices in the past year, raising taxes would drive the industry out of Ohio.
The Plain DealerVoters love wind and solar, may vote for like-minded political candidates
The public prefers wind turbines and solar arrays over power plants that burn coal and oil -- or even new natural-gas-fired plants. Yet only about half of Ohio's registered voters know anything about President Obama's Clean Power Plan, a survey released Friday revealed.
The IntelligencerSen. Jeff Kessler Supports Federal Funding for Coal Towns
West Virginia Senate Minority Leader Jeff Kessler says he is encouraged that Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign has announced a $30 billion plan to help coal mining communities adapt to new climate change policies - and he thinks it sounds familiar to one of his own ideas.
Philadelphia InquirerBudget deal best for now
Not even a historic boost in funding for Pennsylvania schools can completely wash away the bad taste left by the regressive taxation included in the framework for a budget agreement that Gov. Wolf and Republican lawmakers have crafted to end a five-month stalemate.
Pittsburgh Tribune-ReviewPa. DEP ready to write first draft of plan to meet feds' rules
Pennsylvania is one of just six states that has not joined either side of the legal battle over the Obama administration's marquee regulation aimed at limiting carbon pollution from the power sector. Don't confuse that with inaction. After months of conducting hearings and a public comment period that ended Thursday, Pennsylvania is close to writing a first draft of its proposal to meet the requirements of the Clean Power Plan, the state's top environmental regulator said.
Natural Gas IntelligencePennsylvania's Wolf Vows to Keep Pushing NatGas Severance Tax in Future Budgets
Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf has confirmed that a deal to end a more than four month state budget impasse doesn't include a severance tax on unconventional natural gas production, but he added that he won't give up on that proposal in future negotiations.
Standard SpeakerNew study indicates gas drilling could impact rivers, streams
Depending on where and how it’s done, natural gas drilling does have the potential to impact Pennsylvania’s waterways, an independent study reveals. Kenneth M. Klemow, professor of biology and environmental science and director of the Institute for Energy and Environmental Research at Wilkes University, was one of the contributors to a new study examining how natural gas development affects surface water, such as creeks, streams and rivers.
Savannah Morning NewsHunter Hopkins: Georgia's energy opportunity lies offshore
Georgia’s energy industry is primed for a major expansion. With a recent decision from federal regulators, we may finally have an opportunity to develop oil and natural gas off our Atlantic coast. That could drive investment and job growth throughout Georgia — and bring the United States even closer to true energy security.
The Post and CourierEnvironmentalists, S.C. coastal Republicans agree on Atlantic drilling — don’t
Proposals to allow testing for oil and gas off the Eastern Seaboard and possibly open the Atlantic to offshore drilling have made for unlikely allies among environmentalists and conservative Republicans. U.S. Reps. Mark Sanford and Tom Rice, Republicans who represent the South Carolina coast from North Carolina to the Georgia state line, have come out publicly against exploration off the state’s shores.



14 November 2015 5:36am

CBC News.  For the past 25 years, oil and gas exploration in the Beaufort Sea has kept Inuvik on an economic roller coaster. In March 2011, the National Energy Board granted final approval for the Mackenzie Valley natural gas pipeline after the federal cabinet signed off on the long-delayed $16.2-billion project. Low natural gas prices have kept the project on the drawing board since then, although in August, Imperial Oil asked the National Energy Board to extend the sunset clause on regulatory approval through 2022 in the hopes that gas prices will improve.


11-13-15 Notley Sacrifices Consumer Rates For Unknown "Global Warming" Benefits As She Prepares For Paris Global Warming Show and Tell Summit

13 November 2015 6:16am

Notley Wastes No Time In Jumping Off The Deep End Toward Higher Consumer Utility Prices  

Calgary Herald by Chris Varcoe.  Earlier this year, the provincial government announced it would double the carbon levy now imposed on Alberta’s largest industrial emitters to $30 per tonne in 2017.

“We are going to reduce carbon emissions by pricing them,” Notley said in her address.    More....

Commentary.  Notley, who yesterday made an effort to appease oil sands energy supporters, today obeys the enviro siren calls to raise consumer energy prices with what beneficial effect, exactly?

As China and India continue opening a new coal-fired power plant every week or two, increasing consumer costs for unaware Canadian and US consumers is the strategy used by North American global warming worshipers, including Notley.

Notley is preparing to meet with hundreds of socialist-leaning leaders and environmental activists at the upcoming Paris Climate Change Revival.  

To prepare, she is establishing her credentials as a true, global warming evangelist.  Her action will no doubt please the 20 oil companies coming to Paris to worship at the alter of climate change, soliciting the blessings of liberal governments where they operate.

With oil company help, Notley and her ilk will try to tax coal out of business when clean coal powered electricity is the best friend consumers have in Canada or the U.S.

The oil companies will benefit from greater reliance on natural gas demand, at the expense of cheap coal See: POWER PLANT GAS DEMAND GROWS AS COAL DEPARTS.

We hate to see one fossil industry attack another.  It's not the high road I  for always respected within the industry.  But with coal out of the way, natural gas will take its place as a bigger player in power generation, but also the activists' prime fossil target. 

Standing united together for consumers' best interests, gas and coal might have had a chance.  -dh

Premier Rachel Notley served notice Thursday the province will move ahead with a tougher climate change strategy, saying the NDP government has coal emissions squarely in its sights and suggesting more carbon taxes may be coming.

Speaking Thursday night at the Broadbent Institute Progress Gala in Toronto, the premier said Canada needs to become a world leader on tackling climate change and her government will soon unveil key elements of Alberta’s plan to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

“We are going to address the issue of coal,” Notley told the crowd.

“Coal is a high-carbon fuel that we currently depend on for more than half of our electricity in Alberta. In its place, we must encourage lower-carbon....

Calgary Herald by Stephen Ewart  

For all the eager anticipation surrounding the new eco-friendly governments in Canada ahead of the UN’s Paris climate summit it is worth cautioning it’ll still be a lengthy transition to a fossil-fuel-free future. 



Within and near the Marcellus and Utica shale plays, power plant developers are building more than a dozen new natural gas-fired generating units, mostly combined-cycle plants that can operate essentially around-the-clock.

This construction boom, spurred by a combination of abundant, low-cost gas and the regulation-driven retirement of scores of older coal plants, is boosting gas consumption close to gas production areas and reducing-at least a bit-the surplus gas volumes that Marcellus and Utica producers and marketers need to move to markets outside the region.

In today's blog, "Stay With Me-Boosting The Power Burn Within Or Near The Marcellus And Utica Plays," Housley Carr examines the race to build new power plants near production areas in the Northeast, and considers what the resulting local gas consumption might mean for the region's gas prices and pipeline needs.

11-12-15 IEA Says Oil Prices Loom Low, Longer -- May Extend Alaska & Alberta Fiscal Crises

12 November 2015 5:20am

Log onto Alaska Headlamp for its useful report today!

Our venerable, mid-Atlantic energy analyst friend is worried about overcapacity of gas transportation projects: Alaska and Alberta, are you listening?  Read more....  AND ... our Aussie energy analyst friend relays the story of Anadarko's interest (i.e. subsequently withdrawn) in taking over Apache Corporation.  Read more....   -dh

Low Oil Prices Loom Longer.... CBC.  Oil prices are likely to remain low over the next five years because of plentiful supply and falling demand in developed countries, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday in its annual forecast.  The Paris-based body, which advises developed countries on energy policy, says it expects oil prices to return to $80 per barrel in 2020, with further increases after that.

Fiscal problems "loom" over Alaska & Alberta oil Economies; liberal leaders are hostile to the oil industry but seem pressured into giving it lip service!  -dh

Alaska Journal of Commerce by Tim Bradner.  ...time for the big Resource Development Council annual conference.  ... huge issues loom for Alaskans including the proposed $50-billion plus North Slope gas pipeline and liquefied gas project and the state’s ... $3 billion-plus annual deficits.

If Alberta Premier Rachel Notley is supportive of the oilsands and of "...a strong energy industry...," we wonder what her message will be when she joins the world's other socialist leaders -- including America's -- for the International Climate Change Summit in Paris.     See our earlier Paris Summit commentary, "Killing Capitalism".    -dh

Calgary Herald by Don Braid.  Stand back. Environment Minister Shannon Phillips has something to say about claims that she’s out to shut down the oilsands.

“I categorically reject this charge that I’m somehow against the oilsands,” says Premier Rachel Notley’s most forceful minister, who heads to Paris in two weeks for the international climate change summit.

“It is false. I, like the rest of my cabinet and caucus, know that we are — and will be for the foreseeable future — an energy economy.”

“I’ve said this every single time I speak publicly on the matter . . . we are going to build economic diversification on the back of a strong energy industry. I’ve never felt any differently on the matter.”


From: Our mid-Atlantic energy analyst friend re: potential for gas transportation overcapacity.

We have discussed the deplorable state of natural gas pricing, skating just above $2/Mcf (and much lower, for many Utica / Marcellus producers, down below $1/Mcf). 

Conventional wisdom says prices should stay depressed for perhaps at least two more years, waiting for infrastructure to be completed that will direct the natural gas to waiting markets. All very convenient as an outcome.

But suppose:

·        The amount of pipeline infrastructure brought on line exceeds the demand for the natural gas in several, if not most, of the intended end markets.

·        The amount of natural gas available continues to exceed the end demand on a throughput (daily) basis.

·        Both situations happen.

It has been generally assumed that supply and demand will come into relative balance when the end the incremental end users (including LNG exports, incremental power generation, exports to Canada and Mexico, increased industrial demand, and feedstock uses, among others) get their acts together. It should be lumpy in coming together, but should happen at some point, given the attractiveness of a cheap supply of natural gas.

It has also been generally assumed that the pipelines to accomplish this should not greatly exceed the amount needed to create the eventual balance, i.e. not to greatly exceed demand. But there are so many MLPs and others chasing projects with cheap money, that the possibility of over-construction has never been higher. Why should the gas producers be the only ones to have the fun of driving their industry into the ground through excess competition?

We have seen forecasts of a high possibility that both producers and pipeline companies are traveling parallel paths to sustained over-capacity.

In 2010, we asked several infrastructure companies at a conference to tell us how they avoided building too much capacity. We received some answers as to how a given company measured the need for its projects. But we have never had it satisfactorily answered as to how competitors are kept from acting irrationally.

Bottom Line: We are not predicting that BOTH gas production and infrastructure will get overbuilt. But we will be watching for signs it is happening.


11-11-15 Veterans Day In The U.S.

11 November 2015 5:44am

Veterans Day 2015 and Hilcorp's Alaska North Slope Liberty Project

Yes, there is a link

Commentary by

Dave Harbour  

It was a rainy, windy, cool day, that November 10, 1966.

Panmunjom is the well known, Freedom's Frontier guard post -- the most dangerous in the world.  

Today, we wore our Panmunjom hat in a Veterans Day ceremony.  

Today we remind our readers and ourselves that there is more than one way to serve!

Today, we remember with respect two fellow Anchorage, Alaska citizens who served with us on the Korean DMZ: Aves Thompson and Chris Nelson.

Panmunjom, United Nations, Freedom's Frontier, DMZ, Korea, Dangerous outpost, Photo by Dave Harbour

Our advanced infantry training  (AIT) company had just run into the old WWII barracks classroom at Fort Dix, N.J.  

When the 200 of us took our seats in the 1950s era classroom desk-chairs, cold water streamed from our nearly bald, shaved heads, down our necks, through the soaking fatigues to form puddles on the warn, wood floor.

"Tomorrow's our day, boys!"

The hard as nails, bullet spitting, wrinkly and tanned-faced old drill instructor (DI)  leaned forward at the podium, his sharp eyes staring through our own as if to challenge our very souls.

He was the real thing, a nearly real facsimile of Clint Eastwood!

You don't see DIs cry...ever....  

Then, unless I was imagining it because of the tenderness of his tone, I think I saw his eyes moisten as he slowly spoke of America's heritage:

  • President George Washington's reliance on our Creator, verified in his Thanksgiving Day Proclamation, and
  • Francis Scott Key's perfect national Anthem and reaffirmation that for those living in America's freedom, "in God is our trust", and
  • President Lincoln's reliance on spiritual guidance, well evidenced in his Thanksgiving Day message, and

...then, our DI, tough-as-nails Staff Sergeant Kane spoke of his own recent wars: WWII, Korea and Vietnam, of friends injured, of comrades killed, of dreams postponed or destroyed, of families forever affected -- all for the love of this free Country.

Then he told us that we were already soldiers, brand new veterans: not fully trained, to be sure, but members of the club of those who have served in an American uniform since the birth of the Nation.

He wanted us to know that the next day's approaching Veterans Day was not just for those who went abroad.  It was for all who served, no matter when, where, how long or under what circumstances...for, all were prepared to make the ultimate sacrifice.

You could have heard a pin drop on that old, rugged, wood floor.

Then, before returning to the class schedule, he proclaimed again, "Tomorrow's our day, boys!"

In the five decades since my Army days I've always thought that those in civilian life have opportunities -- and responsibilities -- to serve and support their country alongside active duty warriors.

There are many ways those at home may serve.

One of those ways is by enhancing the economic strength of America: supporting a robust energy culture.  Without energy, a country is at the mercy of those with it.  Those with energy extract wealth and opportunity from needy energy nation consumers.

Today, after attending a Veterans Day ceremony, I remembered SSgt Kane's tough instruction and touching review of our history and culture. I remembered my service on the Korean DMZ; of rapid promotions in four years from Private to Captain made possible by rapid Vietnam attrition; of dear friends departed; of a close veteran's bond with Senator Ted Stevens, beginning with our meeting in 1970 in Washington.

As a civilian once again, but one with an unshakeable veteran's sense of mission, today I remembered there was an energy support task that needed doing.

Here is a letter RDC President Marleanna Hall submitted to BOEM.  Our thanks to Carl Portman for providing it to our readers.

So, I finished writing a Veterans Day letter to the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) supporting approval of Hilcorp's Liberty Project.  Last week, our readers learned of the opportunity to weigh in for economic prosperity, for Alaska's future, for America's strength.

Here is a copy of the letter I wrote  today.  I hope all of our readers will consider sending in their own comments.  Here's how.

After all, I think we can all agree and reaffirm on this 2915 Veterans Day that, indeed, there is more than one way to serve our Nation.



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